Wednesday, April 16, 2014

Fed Can't Blame the Weather Much Longer


Peter Schiff has been very critical of the FED in the past and remains so with Janet Yellen, even given here recent slip of rate hikes. He believes that the FED is blaming the weather for it's problems.

- Source, CNBC:


Monday, April 14, 2014

Fed Widened Chasm Between Rich and Poor


Rick Santelli talks with Euro Pacifics Peter Schiff. They talk about golds gains in 2014 and the performance of Janet Yellen.

- Source, CNBC:


Saturday, April 12, 2014

How Democracy Destroyed America's Housing Market


Peter Schiff talks about the US housing market and the bubble 2.0, he discusses Franny and Freddie and how tax payers are now on the hook for 100% of losses.

- Source, The Schiff Show:


Thursday, April 10, 2014

Go For Gold This Tax Season


April 15th is around the corner, and still most gold-buyers are not aware that physical gold IRAs are simple to set up and offer the lowest total cost for physical gold and silver storage. Yes, you can put gold and silver coins and bars into secure storage and get all the tax benefits of an IRS-approved Individual Retirement Account. The process is very simple, and our specialists are there to walk you through it. Peter Schiff explains.

- Source, Peter Schiff via Euro Pacific Precious Metals:


Tuesday, April 8, 2014

The Real Value of Gold with Bill Murphy


Chairman and director of GATA, Bill Murphy joins Peter Schiff on the Peter Schiff show. They discuss gold manipulation and the evidence pointing to it.

- Source, The Peter Schiff Show:


Sunday, April 6, 2014

Recovery Fantasy Persists Despite Contrary Data


In the latest Schiff Report Peter Schiff gives his market recap and discusses the recent economic weakness. Despite that, Wall Street remains positive, blaming all bad data on the Weather.

- Source, The Schiff Report:


Friday, April 4, 2014

Gold Even More Bullish Under Yellen Than Bernanke or Greenspan!


Gold bug Peter Schiff talks about how gold has much further to go and explains how the bull market is not over yet. He believes that Yellen will be a bigger money printer than Ben Bernanke and Allen Greenspan.

- Source Fox Business:


Thursday, March 20, 2014

Peter Schiff: Weather Or Not?

Submitted by Peter Schiff of Euro Pacific Capital,

Everyone agrees that the winter just now winding down (hopefully) has been brutal for most Americans. And while it's easy to conclude that the Polar Vortex has been responsible for an excess of school shutdowns and ice related traffic snarls, it's much harder to conclude that it's responsible for the economic vortex that appears to have swallowed the American economy over the past three months. But this hasn't stopped economists, Fed officials, and media analysts from making this unequivocal assertion. In reality the weather is not what's ailing us. It's just the latest straw being grasped at by those who believe that the phony recovery engineered by the Fed is real and lasting. The April thaw is not far off. Unfortunately the economy is likely to stay frozen for some time to come.

Over the past few weeks, I have seen just about every weak piece of economic news being blamed on the weather. First it was lackluster retail sales that were chalked up to consumers being unable or unwilling to make it to the mall. (This managed to ignore the fact that online sales were similarly weak - which would be unexpected for a nation of snowed in consumers). Then came the weak auto sales that were ascribed to similarly holed up potential car buyers. However, this ignores that while GM and Chrysler sales were way down, sales for luxury cars like BMW, Mercedes and Maserati, surged to record high levels (more on that later). No one offered a reason why wealthier motorists were able to brave the cold. A number of other data points, such as lower GDP, productivity, ISM and factory orders were also ascribed to the elements.

Analysts also blamed the weather for weak housing sales and mortgage applications, which both hit multi-year lows. The idea being that hibernating buyers could not get to real estate open houses or to the bank to process loans. This idea ignores the fact that the weakest home sales over the last few months have come from the states west of the Rockies, where temperatures have been above average.

Of course the biggest weakness ascribed to the snow and ice has been the very disappointing employment reports over the last few months. Analysts faced a very difficult task in squaring these reports, which showed fewer than 187,000 new jobs created in December and January combined, with the accepted narrative that the recovery was firmly underway and that the economy was no longer dependent on the Fed's monetary support.

For these desperate economists the weather was a godsend. Mark Zandi had virtually guaranteed that job creation was being deferred by the weather and that hiring would come roaring back once the mercury started rising. The weather has become such a handy and versatile tool for economic apologists that we may expect that financial news stations will start featuring meteorologists more heavily than financial analysts. Move over Jim Cramer, hello Al Roker.

The weather continued to be horrible in February and as a result, there were wide expectations that today's February jobs report would be similarly bleak. But yesterday's release detailed a slightly better than expected 175,000 new jobs, thereby convincing economists that the economy was so strong that it is overcoming the drag created by the weather. This lays aside the fact that 175,000 jobs should not be causing any optimism. After years of sub-par job growth, I believe a recovering economy would be expected to create more than 300,000 jobs per month in order to make a real dent in underemployment. Those levels, once routine in past decades, seem untouchable today. But weather-related pessimism had caused economist to ratchet down their predictions to just 150,000 jobs in February. Based on that, today's numbers were seen as a win.

But economists are ignoring the likelihood that the weather was never a major factor. Take the cold out of the equation and you would be left with a mediocre February number following two consecutive monthly disasters. This does not change the downward trajectory. In fact, the number may be revised lower in future months, as has been the norm in the years since the economic crisis began.

Drilling deeper into the report will provide little reason for optimism. The labor force participation rate stayed at a generational low and the unemployment rate edged up. On the other hand, the long-term unemployed (those out of work for more than 27 weeks) increased by 203,000 to 3.8 million. Furthermore, over half of the jobs created were low-paying or part-time jobs in education, health care, leisure and hospitality, government, and temporary services. Higher paying information jobs declined by another 16,000 following last month's 8,000 loss, and manufacturing added a scant 6,000 jobs.

The report also contained data that shows how older workers are coming out of, or postponing retirement. This trend is likely caused by inadequate savings rates, low interest rates, and increases in the cost of living that are rising faster than official CPI numbers. Not only does this point to falling living standards, but the jobs being taken by these older workers would normally be filled by younger, less skilled workers, who are left unemployed, buried beneath a pile of student debt and living in their parent's basements.

In truth, economic activity persists in good weather and bad. Winter is largely predictable. It comes around once a year, basically on schedule. Consumers are used to the patterns and know how to deal with them. But don't tell this to today's economists.

A much more plausible explanation to me is that the economy has been weak recently because it is weak fundamental. The data deterioration corresponds not just to unseasonably low temperatures but also to the diminishment of monthly QE from the Federal Reserve. If you recall the highly anticipated "taper" finally began in mid- December. From my perspective the Quantitative Easing has become the sunshine that drives our phony economy. Diminish that sunshine and the economic winter spreads.

But the sad fact is that QE can push up prices in stocks and real estate, but can do very little to affect positive change in the real economy. That's why I believe that BMW's are selling like hotcakes even as Chevies sit on the lot. Our current policies help the wealthy at the expense of everybody else. Unfortunately, I don't think the economy will improve as long as the QE keeps us locked into a failing model. What's worse, once the weather warms and the economy does not, look for Janet Yellen to first taper the taper, then to reverse the process completely.

So be very wary of the rationalizations that come from economists. I believe they are being used to hide the truth. I just can't wait to see the excuses they come up with once the flowers start blooming in April. They will be doozies.

- Source, Zero Hedge:


Tuesday, March 18, 2014

Gold Update, The Dollar Will Collapse First, Janet Yellen Wants More Inflation


Money manager Peter Schiff has a read on gold short sellers. Schiff says, “Of course the short sellers never had the gold to begin with. They’re selling gold they don’t have, and I think the shorts are getting a little bit nervous, but they are going to get a lot more nervous as we turn up the heat here. Gold is now above $1,300 (per ounce). I think it’s going to be above $1,400 before they start to panic a little bit, and I think that’s great.” Schiff goes on to say, “I like the fact the market is moving up and nobody is buying it, nobody is paying attention to it. If they are, they are dismissing it. People think this is a head fake or a dead cat bounce. Instead, it’s the resumption of the (gold) bull market.”

On gold mining stocks, Schiff proclaims, “The valuations are phenomenal in the mining sector because everybody assumed that the price of gold was going to keep falling, and those false assumptions were built into these share prices. So, I think there is a tremendous opportunity for people who want to hit a home run in gold and silver to get into the mining companies. . . . The best performing stock funds so far in 2014 are the gold funds.”

On the effect of Obama Care on the economy, Schiff contends, “The employment base is collapsing; so, the tax base is collapsing. The budget deficits are going to get bigger than ever. They just voted to raise the debt limit, but they didn’t actually just raise the limit–they suspended it. So, in fact, the sky is the limit. They can pile on as much debt as they want to because right now, there IS no limit to the amount of debt we can have, which means we are going to get a lot more debt. Everybody thinks this is good news. . . . Why is that good news? Maybe that’s good news if you are a gold investor, but it’s bad news for everybody else.”

On the possibility of another financial crash, Schiff says, “The messes get progressively bigger because the bubbles get progressively bigger. We have the biggest bubble ever blown right now because we have a simultaneous bubble in the stock market and the real estate market and the bond market. . . . The air is coming out of all of them. The Fed knows this bubble is too big to pop. That’s why the Fed is going to come back with an even bigger round of QE (money printing) than the last round. We’re going to be hit with a tsunami of inflation. . . . I think we’re going to be stuck with a lot of the money, which means it will bid up consumer prices. New Fed Chief Janet Yellen said she wants more inflation. Well, she’s going to get it.”

Schiff thinks the U. S. Dollar will be in trouble first and not Treasury Bonds. Why? Schiff says, “The dollar will go poof first. Remember, the Federal Reserve can buy up all those bonds to stop the prices from collapsing, but in order to do so, it has to print dollars. But, eventually, the dollar collapses because the world figures out the game. The Fed can print all the dollars they want, but they can’t force people to accept them. That is going to be the problem.” (There is much more in the video interview.)


- Source, USA Watchdog:


Sunday, March 16, 2014

Peter Schiff On WhatsApp And The Dysfunctional And Distorted Economy

Submitted by Peter Schiff of Euro Pacific Capital,

Two pieces of business news announced this week provide a convenient frame through which to view our dysfunctional and distorted economy. The first (which has attracted tremendous attention), is Facebook's blockbuster $19 billion acquisition of instant messaging provider WhatsApp. The second (which few have noticed) is the horrific earnings report issued by Texas-based retail chain Conn's. While these two developments don't seem to have much in common, together they shed some very unflattering light on where we stand economically.

Given the size and extravagance of the Facebook deal, it may go down as one of those transactions that define an era (think AOL and Time Warner). Facebook paid $19 billion for a company with just 55 employees, little name recognition, negligible revenues, and little prospects to earn much in the future. For the same money the company could have bought American Airlines and Dunkin' Donuts, and still have had $2 billion left over for R&D. Alternatively they could have used the money to lock in more than $1 billion in annual revenue through an acquisition of any one of the numerous large cap oil producing partnerships. Instead they chose a company that is in the business of giving away a valuable service for free. Come again?

Mark Zuckerberg, the owner of Facebook, is not your typical corporate CEO. Through a combination of technological smarts, timing, luck, and questionable business ethics, he became a billionaire before most of us bought our first cars. And in the years since social media became the buzzword of the business world, Wall Street has been falling over backward to funnel money into the hot sector. As a result, it may be that Zuckerberg looks at real money the way the rest of us look at Monopoly money. It also helps that a large portion of the acquisition is made with Facebook stock, which is also of dubious value.

But even given this highly distorted perspective, it's still hard to figure out why Facebook would pay the highest price ever paid for a company per employee - $345 million (more than four times the old record of $77 million per employee, set last year when Facebook bought Instagram). The popular talking point is that the WhatsApp has gained users (450 million) faster than any other social media site in history, faster even than Facebook itself. Based on its rate of growth, the $42 per user acquisition cost does not seem so outrageous. But WhatsApp gained its users by giving away a service (text messaging) for which cellular carriers charge up to $10 or $20 per month. It's very easy to get customers when you don't charge them, it's much harder to keep them when you do.

Boosters of the deal expect that WhatsApp will be able to charge customers after the initial 12-month free trial period ends (it now charges 99 cents per year after the first year). Based on this model, the firm had revenues of $20 million last year. But what happens if another provider comes in and offers it for free? After all, the technology does not seem to be that hard to replicate. Google has developed a similar application. More importantly, no one seems to be projecting what the cellular carriers may do to protect their texting cash cows.

WhatsApp gives away what AT&T and Verizon offer as an a la carte texting service. As these carriers continue to lose this business we can expect they will simply no longer offer texting as an a la carte option. Instead it will likely be bundled with voice and data at a price that recoups their lost profits. If texting comes free with cell service, a company giving it away will no longer have value. People will still need cellular service to send mobile texts, so unless Facebook acquires its own telecom provider, it can easily be sidelined from any revenue the service may generate.

Some say that texting revenue is unimportant, and that the real value comes from the new user base. But how many of the 450 million users it just acquired don't already have Facebook accounts? And besides, Facebook itself hasn't really figured out how to fully monetize the users it already has. In other words, it is very difficult to see how this mammoth investment will be profitable.

From my perspective, the transaction reflects the inflated nature of our financial bubble. The Fed has been pumping money into the financial sector through its continuous QE programs. The money has pushed up the value of speculative stocks, even while the real economy has stagnated. With few real investments to fund, the money is plowed right back into the speculative mill. We are simply witnessing a replay of the dot com bubble of the late 1990's. But this time it isn't different.

In another replay of that spectacular crash fourteen years ago, the appliance and furniture retailer Conn's has just showed the limits of a business built on vendor financing. In the late 1990's telecom equipment companies almost went bankrupt after selling gear to dot com start-ups on credit. For a while, these "sales" made growth and profits look great, but when the dot coms went bust, the equipment makers bled. Conn's makes its money by selling TVs and couches on credit to Americans who have difficulty scraping up funds for cash purchases. For a while, this approach can juice sales. Not surprisingly, Conn's stock soared more than 1500% between the beginning of 2011 and the end of 2013. These financing options are part of the reason why Conn's was able to keep up the appearance of health even while rivals like Best Buy faltered in 2013.

But if people stop paying, the losses mount. This is what is happening to Conn's. The low and middle-income American consumers that form the company's customer base just don't have the ability to pay off their debt. The disappointing repayment data in the earnings report sent the stock down 43% in one day.

In essence, Conn's customers are just stand-ins for the country at large. In just about every way imaginable, America has borrowed beyond its ability to repay. Meanwhile our foreign creditors continue to provide vendor financing so that we can buy what we can't really afford.

So thanks for the metaphors Wall Street. Too bad most economists can't read the tea-leaves.


- Source, Zero Hedge:


Friday, March 14, 2014

US Careens Toward Twin Crises

Investors should overweight foreign stocks and underweight U.S. stocks, because the U.S. economy and financial system are headed for crisis, says Peter Schiff, CEO of Euro Pacific Capital.

"People have to look beyond the U.S. to try to get out of what's going to be a much worse financial crisis than what happened in 2008," he told John Bachman on "America's Forum" on Newsmax TV.

It's going to be a dollar crisis, ultimately a Treasury bond crisis, and people need to look abroad and own real hard assets through stocks, but through international stocks with good dividend yields."

That's a much better strategy than "to be over-concentrated in overpriced, hyped-up U.S. stocks on the verge of what I see as a real economic collapse here," Schiff said.

As for emerging markets, they made a mistake in absorbing so many dollars created by the Federal Reserve's quantitative easing, Schiff says.

"We ran these huge trade deficits with the emerging markets. And then rather than allowing their currencies to rise, they fought this currency war where they tried to debase their own currencies," he said. "They imported our inflation and also mal-investments that temporarily screwed up their economies."

But here in the U.S., "we're going to be the submerging market, because when the dollar tanks, and it's very close to happening, Americans aren't going to be able to buy anything," Schiff said.

That's going to have a major impact on companies, he says. "Look at all of the companies that are reporting bad earnings here in the United States," such as McDonald's, Schiff said.

"It's America that's going to be the problem, because Americans are broke. We have no savings, we're leveraged up to the hilt, we're borrowing money just to keep our economic heads above water."

The rest of the world isn't doing too badly Schiff says. "They actually have savings. They are working. They are producing," he said.

"So they are going to be enjoying an appreciating currency market. They're going to be able to buy a lot of these products. It's America where the party is over. We're not going to be able to shop."

Meanwhile, Schiff says the 6.6 percent U.S. unemployment rate doesn't accurately reflect the sorry state of the American job market.

"So many people have just given up looking for work," he said. "They're so discouraged by the poor labor prospects that they're no longer being captured by the statistics or they're working part time but they really want full-time jobs."

Beyond unemployment, people are suffering from an escalating cost of living, Schiff says. "The government denies that there's inflation. But the real cost of living — food, energy, basic necessities — is rising rapidly as people's paychecks are diminishing in purchasing power."

- Source, Money News:


Wednesday, March 12, 2014

Dan Dicks Interviews Peter Schiff About the Ongoing Housing Bubble


While attending the Resource Investment Conference in Vancouver Dan Dicks of Press For Truth interviewed Peter Schiff of Euro Pacific about the Canadian housing bubble as well as the current state of the US economy and how it may effect Canadians in the very near future!

- Source:


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